Commentary: Will Music Festival Continue to Decline in 2026?

When the COVID-19 pandemic struck us all in 2019, many areas of our lives were put on hold. Built around human connection and personal participation, the live music industry was among the sectors most affected by it. Fast forward to 2026: while many industries have since fully recovered or even significantly surpassed their pre-COVID-19 levels, live music continues to face challenges.

Skyrocketing production costs, high inflation affecting consumer spending, lower ticket sales, post-pandemic debts, and a potential shift in generational interests away from heavy partying and alcohol consumption are among the key factors creating immense pressure on both organizers and attendees.

The implications have probably been most profound in the UK, where, according to AIF (the Association of Independent Festivals), 1 in 6 festivals came to an end during and in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. While there were 600 music festivals in the UK in 2019, only 482 took place in 2023.

This 19.7% decline included festivals that disappeared during the pandemic and didn't return, as well as those that tried to come back in 2022 but either failed that year or took place but didn’t make it through the 2023 season. In 2024 alone, an additional 60 UK festivals ended. Massive cancellations continued into 2025, with reports suggesting that more than 100 festivals worldwide were canceled, most of them in the US and UK. Surprisingly, in the Netherlands alone, 50 festivals were canceled that year.

Yet, there have been substantial improvements since the world shut down back then – some might even say the live music industry is currently booming. The reality, however, is that the post-COVID recovery has been somewhat uneven. In fact, we might say that live music is experiencing a sort of paradox.

Spanning across more than 140 shows in over 50 cities between March 2023 and December 2024, Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour set in motion what’s now been described as the golden age for stadium mega-tours. Massive tours by global artists like Swift, Coldplay, Beyoncé, Billie Eilish, Katy Perry, Bad Bunny, and many more have driven such huge revenues that they have effectively become the primary source of income for the entire industry.

This has, however, come at the expense of mostly grassroots artists, festivals, and venues, resulting in a highly polarized market where major acts thrive on high ticket prices while smaller scenes and niche communities face closure and financial strain.

In particular, festivals (both small and large) have been experiencing a slump since the pandemic – and yes, this has, to some extent, been triggered by the rise of mega tours. Despite the global living crisis and financial instability, people still want to see live music, even as concert ticket prices have soared. At the same time, due to the financial crisis, people are no longer able to afford to attend both a stadium concert(s) and a festival in the same year; they often have to choose one over the other. And, in fact, many now prioritize bucket list stadium tours over festivals.

“Roll forward to 2024, you go all in to see Taylor Swift, and you don’t bother with the festival,” said Will Page, former chief economist of Spotify, for CNN. “We’re seeing an element of displacement, of cannibalization, of the stadium acts eating the festivals’ lunch.”

For most concertgoers, the reasoning behind this is pretty straightforward: attending a concert by their favorite artist is much more secure and overall less expensive than paying hundreds of dollars for a festival (not including expenses for accommodation, drinks, and food, etc.) with acts they might not even enjoy. Festivals are simply not worth it for them.

Naturally, festivals are becoming increasingly unpredictable and challenging not only for showgoers but also for organizers. Unlike stadium tours, festival planners depend on multiple artists, but to attract them, they must offer arrangements that make performing at the festival worthwhile. With ticket pricing structures changing, having their own arena tours is often more profitable for top-tier artists, making it more difficult for festivals to secure them in the first place.

Beyond rising artist fees, operational costs are also climbing across the board – from supply chain and personnel to technology, logistics, and energy – impacting organizers’ ability to produce financially viable events. Some sources suggest that overall production costs alone have increased by around 40%, with certain expenses rising even more sharply. “We’ve experienced an extreme cost increase of up to 250% in certain areas,” said Lara Wassermann, spokesperson for German dance festival Back To The Roots, back in 2024.

While the overall increase in festival costs has been reflected in ticket prices – bringing us back to many music fans choosing other live events over festivals – the total costs are still often not fully covered. After all, there is a limit to how much festivals can charge for tickets without becoming completely unattractive to a large portion of their audience.

As Suzanne Porter, organizer of New Zealand’s branch of the long-running WOMAD festival, explained in 2024: “We came out of post covid with our costs having increased by over 30 percent, freight, artists, and at the same time, you've got a cost-of-living crisis, so you're trying to keep your ticket price. We didn't put our ticket price up at all for those three festivals, so it's just a perfect storm, really.” The event will be one of many that will take a planned break in 2026 due to ongoing financial struggles, with hopes of returning in 2027.

It’s also worth noting that it’s not only the overall costs but also the substantial deposits that must be paid well in advance of the festival itself that put additional strain on organizers. “Any fees over a few thousand pounds, you are paying a 50% deposit, and quite often, for the higher fees, you are then paying 100% before the gig, which is significant pressure,” emphasized Ross Parkhill, Director of the Stendhal Festival in Northern Ireland.

On top of all this, festivals must account for potential severe weather conditions and increasingly unpredictable climate events, including storms, rainfall, and extreme heat waves. This comes with costly insurance, potentially reaching hundreds of thousands of dollars, covering site insurance, general liability, and possible event cancellation. Still, organizers cannot ultimately control the weather, adding yet another layer of financial risk for hosts and attendees alike.

For example, in 2024, the largest Slovak festival, Pohoda, had to be cancelled prematurely after a severe thunderstorm blew down one of the large tents at the site and injured 29 people. Similarly, in 2025, the Bonnaroo Music and Arts Festival in Tennessee was forced to end early due to forecasts of significant, steady precipitation that would likely have worsened camping and egress conditions.

Even avid music and festival fans have to reduce the number of live music events they attend, creating discrepancies among festivals themselves. People who ultimately decide to attend a festival often choose an established, top-tier live event over a smaller, multi-genre one. As a result, many small and mid-sized events in this category have permanently disappeared.

At the same time, many sources suggest there are too many similar festivals, leading to an oversaturated market and repetitive lineups dominated by the same few big headliners, offering little to no uniqueness or excitement. According to Tiffany Naiman, director of Music Industry Programs at the University of California, this has been mostly the case for larger festivals, which have seen little change or growth over the years.

“The larger ones are plateauing because they haven’t changed for the better. I don’t think that Coachella is doing anything unique or radical anymore,” Naiman said for CNN. Perhaps also because of that, major festivals such as the aforementioned Coachella or Burning Man failed to sell out immediately in both 2024 and 2025 (for Burning Man, this was the first time in over a decade). Additionally, Coachella, widely regarded as the most attended annual music festival in North America, experienced a 15% decline in ticket sales in 2024 compared with the previous year.

More niche, so-called sui generis festivals are generally in a better position, as audiences are gravitating toward unique spaces and experiences, looking for something that makes them feel special. Genre-specific festivals with clear identities are also more prone to thrive as they target dedicated fan bases. However, even within these categories, size, external factors, and existing financial constraints may determine which festivals survive and which shut down.

In addition to these factors, the previously mentioned generational shift in behavioral patterns may be affecting demand for music festivals and live entertainment events more broadly. Historically, the primary target audience for festivals has been people in their teens and 20s, who are generally more inclined to spend time and money on experiences rather than on tangible items.

However, many point out that there are significant differences between millennials, who were in the spotlight of festival organizers during the festival boom between 2010 and 2020, and Generation Z, who sit at the core of that audience today.

Research shows that there have been significant behavioral changes among members of Generation Z, including less alcohol and drug use and more loneliness. They also spend significantly more time on social media and on their phones, which many believe has been linked to increased feelings of isolation and social atomization. Many argue that the excessive use of social media, along with the lasting effects of pandemic lockdowns, has made Generation Z much less likely than previous generations to participate in highly social activities, such as festivals.

For example, according to the Australian Associated Press report, attendance at young adult festivals declined “from 41% of all ticket buyers in 2018-2019 to 27% in 2022-2023.” As a result, Australians in their mid-to-late 20s are now the largest demographic of ticket buyers.

Unfortunately, there are early indicators that the AiaSound Festival isn’t the only event saying goodbye to its stages and audiences in 2026. Already, many others worldwide are taking what is hoped to be a temporary hiatus – some to pause and carefully plan for long-term success and sustainability, others to confront financial struggles amid continuously rising production costs (which are expected to skyrocket even more in 2026). Among these are:

• Desert Hearts Music Festival, Arizona, USA – The electronic music festival is taking a break after a 13-year run to “reset, refocus, and rebuild.”

• Hangout Music Festival, Alabama, USA – The multi-genre festival, which prominently takes place on a beach in a city, is also not happening in 2026 (after missing 2025 as well). Plans are in place for its return in 2027 with a focus on better talent alignment and audience experience.

• Live at Leeds, Leeds, UK – The festival is taking a break to evolve and come back big in 2027 for its 20th anniversary.

• Splore, Orere Point, NZ – The three-day boutique music and arts festival has announced that 2026 will be its last year, bringing an end to almost 20 years of existence. “It's becoming more difficult to sustain a festival of Splore's quality and depth, so rather than diluting it, I'd rather it finish with a bang,” stated John Minty, Splore’s curator.

• We Are One Festival, Cardiff, UK – A Welsh alternative rock festival was supposed to debut in January 2026. In December 2025, it was announced that the event had been cancelled due to an investment withdrawal.

• One Love Festival, Tauranga, NZ – A beloved reggae festival has been cancelled for 2026 due to economic challenges.

As we discussed earlier in the article, the demand for live music has not completely disappeared. However, amid ongoing financial challenges, people need to be more selective about which events they attend. It has now become clear that showgoers value unique, memorable experiences and distinctive offerings the most.

As a result, it’s key – particularly for small, multi-genre festivals – to move beyond music and lean into differentiation to compete with other festivals and remain relevant in an oversaturated market.

For example, sustainability and environmental responsibility have become key factors for music fans when choosing a festival or live event to attend. More concert-goers, especially younger audiences, are becoming more eco-conscious and actively seek out entities and spaces, including festivals, that match their values. For them, sustainability practices such as using renewable energy, implementing zero-waste policies, installing water-refill stations, partnering with environmental organizations, promoting vegetarian and vegan diets, and supporting local brands have become the new standard. Therefore, a well-promoted sustainability program (that is genuine, not just symbolic) can serve as a compelling selling point, driving ticket sales and boosting loyalty.

Innovation – primarily driven by technological progress – can also become an important strategy for festivals to stand out. While experiencing an event in person is undeniably a part of a festival’s magic, integrating digital elements like AI, VR zones, interactive installations, or even live streaming can create an immersive experience worth attending and paying for. Furthermore, blending in virtual experiences and concerts can attract a wider audience, generate new revenue streams, and enhance overall event accessibility.

It’s difficult to discuss differentiation without mentioning personalization. Advances in data analytics and artificial intelligence enable festival organizers to gain valuable insight into fan preferences, audience behavior, and spending habits. Access to this data helps them create custom fan experiences and live performances – similar to how social media and streaming platform algorithms offer personalized recommendations (the ethics of data mining is a different topic). Personalized itineraries, exclusive access bundles, and direct fan-artist interactions can deepen engagement and also justify higher ticket prices.

While many festivals need to carefully consider external factors beyond their control and find ways to stand out, it’s expected that many major festivals like Lollapalooza in Chicago, Primavera Sound, Coachella, or Rock im Park (and Rock am Ring) will move forward with strong lineups, continuing to draw large crowds.

This highlights the general trend among live event fans to prefer experiential, headliner-heavy festivals — especially those with an international reputation – over smaller, lesser-known ones. Consequently, this reflects the broader polarized festival market, where top-tier events outperform smaller ones, driven by global talent, strong branding, and often better access to sponsors and capital.